WHO warns 10,000 new Ebola cases per week likely
• Says death rate rises to 70%
• 4,447 people out of 8,914 cases die
• Experts fear virus could spread through air
WITH a warning that the death rate in the Ebola outbreak had risen to 70 per cent and there could be up to 10,000 new cases a week in two months, the World Health Organisation (WHO) yesterday stressed the need to continue to combat the virus.
The body increased its Ebola death toll tally to 4,447 people, nearly all of them in West Africa, from 8,914 cases as experts are warning that the virus could mutate and become airborne, meaning that it could be caught by breathing it in.
The public is being told by health officials that the virus that causes Ebola cannot be transmitted through the air and can only be spread through direct contact with bodily fluids – blood, sweat, vomit, feces, urine, saliva or semen – of an infected person who is showing symptoms.
However, several leading Ebola researchers claim that the virus mutating and spreading through the air should not be ruled out.
The international community has stepped up its anti-Ebola fight, with the UN Mission for Ebola Emergency Response (UNMEER) launching a strategy to try to rein in the disease.
Known as the “70-70-60” plan, it ensures that 70 per cent of burials are conducted safely and 70 per cent of suspected cases isolated, within 60 days.
New Ebola research demonstrates that quick and forceful implementation of control interventions is necessary to control outbreaks and avoid far worse scenarios.
Researchers, in the study published in Eurosurveillance, analyzed up-to-date epidemiological data of Ebola cases in Nigeria as of October 1, 2014, in order to estimate the case fatality rate, proportion of health care workers infected, transmission progression and impact of control interventions on the size of the epidemic.
A high-tech British company Primerdesign Limited, a spin-off company from the University of Southampton, has developed a fast and simple diagnostic test solution specific to the 2014 Ebola outbreak.
With the current epidemic of Ebola virus in West Africa, Primerdesign is racing to provide an easy-to-use, affordable solution for screening suspected patients.
Assistant Director-General of WHO, Dr. Bruce Aylward, gave the grim figures during a news conference in Geneva. Previously, WHO had estimated the death rate at around 50 per cent.
Aylward said: “It could reach 5,000 to 10,000 cases per week by the first week of December,” though he underlined that that was just a working forecast to help guide the international fight against the virus.
“It’s been running about a thousand cases a week now for about three to four weeks,” he told reporters in Geneva.
“The labs sometimes can’t keep up with the amount of specimens they’re getting,” he added, underling that the real case-count and death toll remained unclear as a result.
The latest case-count in the Ebola outbreak is 8,914, with a death toll of 4,447.
The overwhelming majority of the cases are still in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, Aylward said.
On paper, that suggests a survival rate of 50 per cent, but the figures mask the true picture, he underlined.
“There are these many cases that we’re aware of, these many deaths that have been reported to us, but that doesn’t mean you divide one by the other and get how many this disease kills,” Aylward said.
“To get that number, you need to take a bunch of people, follow them right through the course of their disease, and understand how many survive. That subset of people, who we know were sick, and we know their final outcome, what we’re finding is 70 per cent mortality, it’s almost the exact same number across the three countries,” he said.
“This is a high mortality disease in any circumstance, but especially in these places where it’s happening,” he added.
Aylward said the 70 per cent death rate was “a high mortality disease” in any circumstance and that the U.N. health agency was still focused on trying to get sick people isolated and provide treatment as early as possible.
He told reporters that if the world’s response to the Ebola crisis wasn’t stepped up within 60 days, “a lot more people will die” and there will be a huge need to deal with the spiraling numbers of cases.
For the last four weeks, there have been about 1,000 new cases per week — including suspected, confirmed and probable cases, he said, adding that the UN health agency was aiming to get 70 per cent of cases isolated within two months to reverse the outbreak.
Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia have been hardest hit nations in the current outbreak. Aylward said WHO was very concerned about the continued spread of Ebola in the three countries’ capital cities —Freetown, Conakry and Monrovia.
He said the agency was still focused on trying to treat Ebola patients, despite the huge demands on the broken health systems in West Africa.
“It would be horrifically unethical to say that we’re just going to isolate people,” he said, noting that new strategies like handing out protective equipment to families and setting up very basic clinics — without much treatment — was a priority.
In Berlin, a UN medical worker infected with Ebola in Liberia died despite “intensive medical procedures.” The St. Georg hospital in Leipzig said yesterday that the 56-year-old man, whose name has not been released, died overnight of the infection.
The man tested positive for Ebola on October 6, prompting Liberia’s U.N. peacekeeping mission to place 41 other staff members under “close medical observation.”
He arrived in Leipzig for treatment on October 9. The hospital’s chief executive, Dr. Iris Minde, said at the time there was no risk of infection for other people, since he was kept in a secure isolation ward specially equipped with negative pressure rooms that are hermetically sealed.
He was the third Ebola patient to be flown to Germany for treatment. The first man recovered and returned home to Senegal. A Uganda aid worker is still being treated in Frankfurt.
On the UN Mission for Ebola Emergency Response (UNMEER) launching a strategy to try to rein in the disease, Aylward said: “These targets could turn the tide of the disease. Pushing the system hard to reach it.”
Ebola spreads via the body fluids of patients, and can even be passed on by their corpses, meaning that there have been massive efforts to stem traditional funeral rights that involve touching a body.
Aylward noted that each Ebola patient infected around two other people, on average.
“Every time you isolate another patient, every time you have a safe burial, you’re taking some of the heat out iof this outbreak,” said Aylward.
“But this is Ebola. This is a horrible, unforgiving disease. You’ve got to get to zero. And what gets you down to a level of control may not be - and usually isn’t - what’s going to get you down to zero,” he said.
“We’re going to have to really put the pressure on this virus to get it to zero,” he added.
• 4,447 people out of 8,914 cases die
• Experts fear virus could spread through air
WITH a warning that the death rate in the Ebola outbreak had risen to 70 per cent and there could be up to 10,000 new cases a week in two months, the World Health Organisation (WHO) yesterday stressed the need to continue to combat the virus.
The body increased its Ebola death toll tally to 4,447 people, nearly all of them in West Africa, from 8,914 cases as experts are warning that the virus could mutate and become airborne, meaning that it could be caught by breathing it in.
The public is being told by health officials that the virus that causes Ebola cannot be transmitted through the air and can only be spread through direct contact with bodily fluids – blood, sweat, vomit, feces, urine, saliva or semen – of an infected person who is showing symptoms.
However, several leading Ebola researchers claim that the virus mutating and spreading through the air should not be ruled out.
The international community has stepped up its anti-Ebola fight, with the UN Mission for Ebola Emergency Response (UNMEER) launching a strategy to try to rein in the disease.
Known as the “70-70-60” plan, it ensures that 70 per cent of burials are conducted safely and 70 per cent of suspected cases isolated, within 60 days.
New Ebola research demonstrates that quick and forceful implementation of control interventions is necessary to control outbreaks and avoid far worse scenarios.
Researchers, in the study published in Eurosurveillance, analyzed up-to-date epidemiological data of Ebola cases in Nigeria as of October 1, 2014, in order to estimate the case fatality rate, proportion of health care workers infected, transmission progression and impact of control interventions on the size of the epidemic.
A high-tech British company Primerdesign Limited, a spin-off company from the University of Southampton, has developed a fast and simple diagnostic test solution specific to the 2014 Ebola outbreak.
With the current epidemic of Ebola virus in West Africa, Primerdesign is racing to provide an easy-to-use, affordable solution for screening suspected patients.
Assistant Director-General of WHO, Dr. Bruce Aylward, gave the grim figures during a news conference in Geneva. Previously, WHO had estimated the death rate at around 50 per cent.
Aylward said: “It could reach 5,000 to 10,000 cases per week by the first week of December,” though he underlined that that was just a working forecast to help guide the international fight against the virus.
“It’s been running about a thousand cases a week now for about three to four weeks,” he told reporters in Geneva.
“The labs sometimes can’t keep up with the amount of specimens they’re getting,” he added, underling that the real case-count and death toll remained unclear as a result.
The latest case-count in the Ebola outbreak is 8,914, with a death toll of 4,447.
The overwhelming majority of the cases are still in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, Aylward said.
On paper, that suggests a survival rate of 50 per cent, but the figures mask the true picture, he underlined.
“There are these many cases that we’re aware of, these many deaths that have been reported to us, but that doesn’t mean you divide one by the other and get how many this disease kills,” Aylward said.
“To get that number, you need to take a bunch of people, follow them right through the course of their disease, and understand how many survive. That subset of people, who we know were sick, and we know their final outcome, what we’re finding is 70 per cent mortality, it’s almost the exact same number across the three countries,” he said.
“This is a high mortality disease in any circumstance, but especially in these places where it’s happening,” he added.
Aylward said the 70 per cent death rate was “a high mortality disease” in any circumstance and that the U.N. health agency was still focused on trying to get sick people isolated and provide treatment as early as possible.
He told reporters that if the world’s response to the Ebola crisis wasn’t stepped up within 60 days, “a lot more people will die” and there will be a huge need to deal with the spiraling numbers of cases.
For the last four weeks, there have been about 1,000 new cases per week — including suspected, confirmed and probable cases, he said, adding that the UN health agency was aiming to get 70 per cent of cases isolated within two months to reverse the outbreak.
Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia have been hardest hit nations in the current outbreak. Aylward said WHO was very concerned about the continued spread of Ebola in the three countries’ capital cities —Freetown, Conakry and Monrovia.
He said the agency was still focused on trying to treat Ebola patients, despite the huge demands on the broken health systems in West Africa.
“It would be horrifically unethical to say that we’re just going to isolate people,” he said, noting that new strategies like handing out protective equipment to families and setting up very basic clinics — without much treatment — was a priority.
In Berlin, a UN medical worker infected with Ebola in Liberia died despite “intensive medical procedures.” The St. Georg hospital in Leipzig said yesterday that the 56-year-old man, whose name has not been released, died overnight of the infection.
The man tested positive for Ebola on October 6, prompting Liberia’s U.N. peacekeeping mission to place 41 other staff members under “close medical observation.”
He arrived in Leipzig for treatment on October 9. The hospital’s chief executive, Dr. Iris Minde, said at the time there was no risk of infection for other people, since he was kept in a secure isolation ward specially equipped with negative pressure rooms that are hermetically sealed.
He was the third Ebola patient to be flown to Germany for treatment. The first man recovered and returned home to Senegal. A Uganda aid worker is still being treated in Frankfurt.
On the UN Mission for Ebola Emergency Response (UNMEER) launching a strategy to try to rein in the disease, Aylward said: “These targets could turn the tide of the disease. Pushing the system hard to reach it.”
Ebola spreads via the body fluids of patients, and can even be passed on by their corpses, meaning that there have been massive efforts to stem traditional funeral rights that involve touching a body.
Aylward noted that each Ebola patient infected around two other people, on average.
“Every time you isolate another patient, every time you have a safe burial, you’re taking some of the heat out iof this outbreak,” said Aylward.
“But this is Ebola. This is a horrible, unforgiving disease. You’ve got to get to zero. And what gets you down to a level of control may not be - and usually isn’t - what’s going to get you down to zero,” he said.
“We’re going to have to really put the pressure on this virus to get it to zero,” he added.
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