“If you Tinubu me, I’ll Saraki you”

This should be a drama-filled week, as President Muhammadu Buhari finally submits his mysterious ministerial list to the embattled senate, with its war-prone head, Dr.Bukola Saraki. And for those who think the senate president is cowering in fear, ready to play ball as a result of his current ordeal, well, forget it. Saraki is bristling and getting ready for war with the forces arrayed against him. If I were in shoes, I would be doing the same because even a meek sheep, like our people say, fights back when its back is against the wall. And Saraki’s back is really against the wall right now. You don’t dock a proud, cow-owning Fulani, scion of the famed Oloye, who is a former governor and now number three citizen of Nigeria; you don’t dock such a fellow, ruffle him up, treat him like a criminal; you don’t give him that raw deal and expect him to just disappear into the shadows and lay low. Even if he wants to do that, there are fans that won’t allow him. Then there are nights when madam Toyin’s tears would flow freely. Well, even the most cowardly of men can stand that. Be scared of a man set to protect his name, his legacy and his wife! Saraki is a dangerous man now. I mean, what has he to lose? Didn’t they say a man down needs fear no fall? And, don’t be fooled, the good doctor still has some deadly punches left in him to knockout his opponents. He still has the majority of the senate; he is starting to enjoy some popular support in political circles and there is the ever present opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), ready to be the spoiler in the matter.
Clearly, the Senate President is no push over and his traducers might be dancing at the precipice. Meanwhile, his traducers are no jokers. They are busy sharpening their arsenals of battle. One strategy is to get Saraki sacked or force him to resign before too long. But how would they achieve that? As a people, we are not there yet where people resign as a result of allegations of graft. In other climes, this is a simple matter. The Senate President would have, by now, thrown in the towel, after a teary plea to clear his name. That’s what a “white man” would have done. The only oyibo, who hasn’t toed this path of honour is FIFA’s President, Sepp Blatter, who would never quit, even if the god of soccer shows up. So, expecting Saraki to resign may be far-fetched. The other plot, as we earlier noted, is to impeach him. Now, that is a Herculean task, considering the number of signatures required. And why would Saraki team want him out? They would benefit more by having their own man around to facilitate committee positions, but then what is a committee position in the current dispensation? In the past, heading a “juicy” committee was the ultimate jackpot. Take the committee on power. When Senator Phillip Aduda headed that committee, he was almost like the biggest boy in town, becoming very powerful, even in presidential circles. But that was in another era altogether. That was before change came and now, everyone walks in fear of the Stern One. And that fear may be able to sway the senators to the other side in the current face-off. If I were a senator, I would be weighing my options right now. Should I stick with Saraki and incur the wrath of the Stern One or do I remain loyal to the senate president and get all the dividends of that loyalty? In the past, it would have just been a matter of how much one can get out of the deal. But that has also changed. No Ghana Must Go bags from the Villa to finance a regime change in the National Assembly! Yet, psychologically, senators might have been cowed by seeing their leader in the dock like that. If I were a senator, I would be running that picture in my mind. Shouldn’t I rather side with the man who has been able to humiliate my president in that manner? If they can do this to him, what happens to me if I prove to be recalcitrant?
But in all of these, Saraki is still in charge for the moment. A theory making the rounds is that he is waiting for the list of the “noisemakers”.
And then he would have his revenge. He can give the nominees a lot of hell at the screening and disqualify as many as possible to frustrate the September deadline. But this strategy may backfire, as the presidency would just blame any further delay on the senate. The other thing open to Saraki is to quit and actually “dash” the PDP the senate presidency. That would be a heavy blow on the ruling party. Already, talks are rife that former Senate President, David Mark, is warming up to retake his seat. This is predicated on the grounds that Saraki may eventually get the boot either by his resignation (I’ve argued this is far-fetched) or his impeachment (another near impossibility). In the event of all of these, Saraki might just drift back to his old allies in the opposition party. Signs emerged last week that Saraki is, after all, no longer in love with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). He has reportedly dropped the APC logo from his website; he didn’t pay the president or vice president any sallah homage visit (as it is the practice out here); the PDP has continued to defend – a role his party should have been playing. When he was heckled in Kwara during sallah, his party did not make any comment. It is obvious that Saraki is no longer welcomed in the APC from all of these. His advisers may be telling him to reconnect with his roots. On its part, the APC is not relenting. Unconfirmed reports had it that the party is working hard to present a new senate president. Some names have even been mentioned as possible replacements. One of the curious names that emerged is that of Senator Remi Tinubu – spouse of the undisputable owner of the party – Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. I remember that she refused to shake hands with the new senate president months ago. She must be a soothsayer to have known that in a matter of weeks Saraki would be fighting for his life. The more you think of it, you are equally compelled to recall all the other political battles in our history. A very interesting one was between Godwin Adzuana Daboh and Chief J.S Tarka. Both men are late now.
The title of my column today is drawn from a popular quote attributed to their altercation. It was said that at a point, Daboh summed it all up and threatened that “if you Tarka me, I will Daboh you.” The rest, like they say, is now history.