Bayelsa Decides: Two hard choices for the Ijaw

With only 48 hours to the governorship election in Bayelsa State, the people of the state who are mainly Ijaw are faced with a hard choice between the two major gladiators: Governor Seriake Dickson and former governor Timipre Sylva.

While Dickson is flying the banner of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), former governor Sylva is contesting on the ticket of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). There are other 20 gubernatorial candidates of other parties with Moses Siasia, of the Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM), the only strong one amongst them.

But within all the contestants, the election is a straight battle between Dickson and Sylva. This makes it a hard choice for the people of the state and likened to being between the Red Sea and the Deep Blue Sea.

This is because the electorate have had the unique opportunity of experiencing the two gladiators in office. Sylva who was a former member of the PDP was governor of the state between 2007 and 2011 with the incumbent taking over from him in a manner akin to gubernatorial war.


While Sylva had been a charter member of the PDP when he served as governor, he fought against some of the party’s top leaders in the state who ended his second term dream. He was replaced with Hon. Seriake Dickson who was then a member of the House of Representatives. Consequently, the return of Sylva is being touted by his supporters as payback for the PDP’s poor treatment of him which scuttled his tenure.

On the other hand, the supporters of the incumbent PDP government are seeking to portray the ex-governor’s re-emergence as proof that in the state, the APC represents nostalgia for the bad old days rather than genuine change that the party is claiming to brng.

As a result, Governor Dickson’s campaign has been driven largely by references to the difference between the commitment to infrastructural expansion that he initiated when he took over from Sylva and the insecurity and political confusion that characterised much of Sylva’s reign. As the campaigns reach a climax it is increasingly clear that the battle to convince the electorate on who to choose has become a debate over the credibility of the two most prominent candidates’ records in office.

The fact that Governor Dickson’s experience has been affected by an unprecedented downturn in the economic fortunes of the state which may not be his fault has given the APC campaigners an unfair advantage that they have been quick to grasp and used for mileage in their campaigns.

Their appeal is to public disenchantment by targeting shortfalls in payment of statutory allowances, salaries and contract obligations without acknowledging the fact that this is symptomatic of a nationwide economic downturn affecting many states.

The Sylva campaign machinery has proven to be remarkably adept at utilising this appeal to unfair sentiments of public disenchantment, while the incumbent PDP’s machinery has remained committed to sustaining its adherence to the gradual development of the state. Though the PDP’s strategy is not as glamorous as the APC’s nostalgic campaign, but it is based on chances of a more stable and realistic developmental schedule.

Although Sylva’s re-emergence on the political scene in Bayelsa State has been driven by circumstances that are peculiar to the state’s profile as an element of the national polity in the post-Goodluck Jonathan era, there are also other reasons for his resurgent popularity.

Among these, the penchant for pulling down the leaders of the state, especially if they are regarded as being less generous with the distribution of financial resources than they should be, is an important factor. Sylva’s handlers have been very busy promoting this sentiment at the grassroots level as a part of their strategy of blaming the incumbent for ills inherited from the past. For example, the APC candidate’s handlers do not mention the fact that a substantial proportion of the state’s monthly allocation from the Federation Account (FAC) is regularly extracted at source to pay off a huge debt that was incurred by Sylva’s Administration.

At the same time, they are quick to point to some of the consequences of this reality such as delays in salary payments and shortfalls in pension payments as having been created by Dickson. The irony of this is that that nostalgic perception is being generated by an APC candidate based on his record as a PDP Governor.

The realities that have emerged in this exciting campaign period in Bayelsa State are likely to have repercussions that will influence the growth of the democratic impulse throughout the nation in the future. Already, the increase of community based interactions between the candidates and the community leaders, which has been initiated by the Dickson camp, has set a new pace for contestation. It is reasonably certain that subsequent general elections for both state and National Assembly seats will reflect this increasing concern with the public response at the grassroots.

What remains to be assessed is the extent to which the results of the forthcoming election will reflect the true state of affairs on the ground and whether the electorate will be moved by the style rather than the substance of the campaign rhetoric.

A close perusal of the difference between the Sylva campaign style and the Dickson strategy reveals a fundamental separation between bluster and truth as the Sylva campaign steadfastly ignores the realities of the record of dysfunction that bedeviled the tenure of its champion while the Dickson/PDP machine is increasingly forced onto the defensive.

In this situation, even though the Dickson campaign can rightly claim to be representative of the most fundamental change in governance experienced in the state so far the APC tries to take advantage of an overwhelming penchant for opportunist camp-switching displayed by several political operatives in the state to give the impression that the Sylva resurgence is a popular movement. This syndrome, which is symptomatic of the failures of past leadership strategies in the state, is now being promoted as tactical proof of the credibility of Sylva’s claim to be the best representative of change in the state’s political arena.

Any suggestion that the Sylva challenge is less than a serious threat to the ascendancy of the PDP in Bayelsa State would be an unfortunate miscalculation and misreading of the true political situation in the entire Niger Delta. The APC regards the seizure of power in the major oil-bearing states to be a key priority of its strategy for the future consolidation of its victory in the last presidential election.

The fact that Bayelsa State is the home of former President Jonathan has also given added impetus to Sylva’s determination to return to power, while this reality is also one of the key motives that Governor Dickson puts forward as justification for reinforcing his mandate for a second term.

Whereas the Sylva team has revealed a high level of bitterness over what they portray as longstanding hostility between the former President and their candidate, the Dickson team portrays the retention of power in the state as being necessary to preserve and protect the gains and principles of progressive empowerment achieved by the Southern Minorities, especially the Ijaw who form the major ethnic bloc in the state, during Jonathan’s tenure. These perceptions drive the rhetoric and tactics unleashed by the contestants in the independent broadcast media in the state and through an unprecedentedly high volume of sophisticated billboards and posters around Yenagoa, the state capital.

What will however come into play in the peoples’ choice is the performance or non-performance of both candidates while in power with Dickson being unfortunate at the moment being a period of lack of resources which has impacted negatively developmental efforts of his administration.

The era of Sylva, not particularly noted for excellent performance is past and with human memory being short, his current attempt at improving his image within the people will definitely place him in more advantageous position.

But the impact of former President Jonathan’s backing for Dickson will also swing some votes for him for he is not without support in his home base. The recent mass decamping of powerful members of APC to PDP and vice versa is a pointer to how the voting pattern is likely to be – bumper to bumper.

Unlike in the last general election where the mantra of change came in handy for the APC to send the PDP packing, this election not about anti-corruption fight as both major contenders cannot boast of being Mr. Clean.

So, whichever way you look at it, Saturday’s election is going to be a hard choice for the electorate and would definitely be a close call