New Poll Gives Clinton Wide Path to Victory

Poll results from 50 states show close race, but also some surprises, and an overall lead for Hillary Clinton.

 

A new poll released Thursday shows that even without winning Ohio and Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton would win in November. Matt Rourke/AP


Hillary Clinton would defeat Donald Trump if the election were held today, heading to a relatively easy victory even if Trump were to win the key battleground state of Ohio.


A massive new poll by Morning Consult finds Clinton, the presumptive Democratic nominee, would collect 320 Electoral College votes to Trump's 212, far more than the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

The poll, taken between April and early July, surveyed nearly 60,000 registered voters in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, a large enough sample to make a complete estimate of Electoral College results as the presidential race stands now.


When eight toss-up states are removed, Clinton leads 225 electoral votes to Trump's 190.


Morning Consult's overall result is consistent with the fluctuating but persistent lead Clinton has maintained over Trump, the presumptive GOP nominee, in national polling since it became clear they would face each other in the general election. The survey also contains some surprises that may challenge the conventional wisdom regarding the states that are up for grabs this November.


In five states – Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Florida, New Hampshire – Morning Consult found Clinton and Trump separated by less than a single percentage point.


(Courtesy Morning Consult)


Trump narrowly edges Clinton in Ohio, 41.7 percent to 40.9 percent, well within the poll's 1.6-point margin of error for the state. In April, a similar survey showed the Buckeye State leaning toward Clinton by 2 points.


She also has lost a narrow advantage in Iowa, where they are now in a dead heat at 40.1 percent apiece. Clinton, meanwhile, has fractional advantages – within the state margins of error – in Pennsylvania, Florida, and New Hampshire.



All told, less than 5 points separate the two candidates in 13 states – including many of the Midwestern battleground states where white working class voters have increasingly abandoned the Democratic Party and where Trump hopes to lure them with his populist, protectionist message railing against free trade deals and immigration.