After seven years, the monetary policy committee may have to make a change Economists

expect interest rates might be cut for the first time since 2009. Even if not, the MPC’s long holiday looks to be over

Mark Carney with actor Jude Law, in the royal box at Wimbledon on 8 July. Photograph: Ben Curtis/AP

As Everton fan Mark Carney has learned since becoming governor of the Bank of England, being a member of the monetary policy committee is a little bit like being Ross Barkley on international duty. The country gives you a squad number and likes you to show up at the odd team meeting – but that’s about it.

Yet, having done nothing since last moving interest rates in March 2009, this week sees the MPC meet amid City suggestions that its members may finally need to limber up for a run-out.

Of the 52 economists surveyed by Reuters last week, 33 said the bank rate would remain steady at this week’s meeting at 0.5%, while 17 predicted a cut to 0.25% and another two said rates would be chopped to zero.

“Median forecasts show a single cut to 0.25% by the end of the July-September quarter, by which time the economy is expected to be slowing even more,” Reuters added. “Most economists said Bank rate would stay at 0.25% until the end of next year.”

Obviously these predictions come from economists – so another completely unforeseen option is now odds-on to materialise – but it does suggest that MPC members should try to enjoy what could be the final days of a seven-year holiday. Heroically, Carney seems to be leading from the front; on Friday he was spotted in the royal box at Wimbledon.
Farnborough flounders in the fourth dimension

When commenting about the TSR-2, a cold war strike and reconnaissance aircraft that was controversially cancelled by a Labour government in 1965 because of rising costs, aircraft designer Sir Sydney Camm said: “All modern aircraft have four dimensions: span, length, height and politics; TSR-2 simply got the first three right.” It’s quite a good gag for the airline industry, and is worth trotting out again as we approach the Farnborough air show this week – the biennial industry boondoggle that’s always political and will be more so this year.

Last time there was some hilarious spat about Russian delegates not being given visas because of some frightful chap called Mr Putin (the Russians still embarrassed fellow delegate David Cameron by waltzing into Hampshire to exhibit their gear); this time the big issue is sure to be lots of theorising about the industry handling a Brexit.

Paul Everitt, boss of industry body ADS, sounds worried and muses: “The aerospace, defence, security and space industries will work with government to minimise the negative impacts of the decision to leave the EU.” Or in Camm’s parlance, let’s see if we can get the fourth dimension right.
It’s not fine and Gandy for M&S
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With delicious timing, this week sees the Marks & Spencer annual general meeting – happening mere days after last week’s promotion in which shareholders were given two humiliations for the price of one.

First up, the company announced it had suffered its biggest fall in clothing sales since the 2008 banking crisis as new boss Steve Rowe tried to end the chain’s reliance on heavy discounting.

Then the dire figures were compounded by embarrassment when the retailer was forced to issue a second stock exchange announcement admitting it had got some of its sales figures wrong. Rather than rising 1.3%, group sales were actually down 0.4%. Rowe blamed the mistake on a clerical error and said there had been no breach of procedure.

All of which is sure to come up at this week’s meeting, where investors routinely grill the board, not only on financial performance but also on whether its clothing ranges are aimed at more fashion-conscious shoppers.

“These are not the numbers I want to see by any stretch, but they are the numbers I expected to see,” said Rowe last week, which is ironic. Many of M&S’s fusty shareholders say much the same when presented with snaps of model David Gandy in a pair of M&S budgie smugglers.